Strategy is a Hypothesis
Treat your strategic choices as testable assumptions, not immutable truths.
Quote
Most strategy is, let’s face it, bullsh*t. A bunch of fancy words which mean nothing at all.
Smith argues that strategy often becomes vague corporate speak because it's seen as a final, unchangeable plan rather than an educated guess. He says a strong strategy is an idea about how a business can meet its goals. This view encourages continuous learning, adaptation, and questioning initial assumptions. By seeing strategy as an idea, organizations must define clear ways to measure success, identify risks, and stay flexible based on market feedback. This ongoing approach differs from rigid, often superficial strategies that fail ...
Supporting evidence
The author implicitly critiques the common practice of creating elaborate, yet unactionable, strategic documents that are then filed away and forgotten, highlighting their 'bullsh*t' nature.
Apply this
When developing a strategy, explicitly state the underlying assumptions and predictions. Design experiments or pilot programs to test these assumptions quickly and cheaply before committing significant resources. Establish clear KPIs to validate or invalidate your strategic hypothesis.









